Sunday, March 4, 2012

February 2012 Dashboard

Published March 3, 2012

The HybridCars.com monthly sales dashboard is a collaboration of HybridCars.com and Baum & Associates, a Michigan-based market research firm focusing on automotive issues including the hybrid and electric vehicle market.





Despite Chevy Volt sales increasing by around 70 percent compared to January's low numbers, General Motors announced it has enough supply and will shut down the Detroit-Hamtramck assembly plant for five weeks to balance with demand.


February hybrid sales spiked at two-and-a-half-times the increase of the also rising passenger vehicle market at 66.3 percent for hybrids, compared to 25.9 percent for the whole vehicle market. The proverbial rising tide raised most boats, and an overall increase in sales of hybrid, plug-in, and clean diesel vehicles was observed, with some exceptions, naturally.



Total February 2012 hybrid sales of over 36,000 are at their highest level since March 2011 (35,000) and are likely to continue to rise due to increasing gas prices, improving availability, and additional models being offered. The share of total sales is 3.2 percent, which has only been exceeded by 3.3 percent in April 2008 (a time of rising fuel prices) and 3.6 percent in July 2009 (the beginning of the cash for clunkers program).



Prius sales – which Toyota lumps together for all Prius variants, and which we as of yet cannot promise to reliably break out by individual model month after month – are strong based on improved availability and the launch of the Prius V.



While exact Prius V figures are not available, our sources suggest that sales of the "regular" Prius were 16,200 in February, up 20 percent from year-ago levels. Sales of the Prius V were approximately 4,400 units, which equates to an annual rate of 40,000 to 50,000 units. Prius C (the smaller variant) is not yet on sale, but will commence this month as will the Prius Plug in vehicle.




The Camry Hybrid has been revised in concert with the launch of the new model last fall. Camry hybrid sales were 11 percent of total Camry sales in February, which is up from the 5 percent share common in the previous model run. An annual rate of 40,000 to 50,000 vehicles is possible.




Also in February, the 2013 Malibu mild hybrid launched with sales of only 350 units, with much greater volume to come. Growth in the Buick Lacrosse and Regal hybrids is also occurring.



Regarding the nascent plug-in market, sales remained modest, and availability in certain regions continues to be an issue – either too much in some instances, or not enough. In the case of the Chevrolet Volt, production was suspended in January, resumed in early February, and then, as reported, suspended again Feb. 3, which, along with 1,300 temporary Detroit-Hamtramck assembly plant layoffs, should last five weeks until April 23.



Current Volt models – for which GM reports excess supply on hand, thus the closure – reflect two important changes: 1) a modified structure surrounding the battery pack to address perceived safety concerns, and 2) a new lower emissions version of the vehicle that will qualify California drivers for the high occupancy vehicle lane (as well as a state incentive of $1500). California is the single largest plug-in vehicle market, and GM has said it wishes to establish a stronger foothold there and now hopes this will help considering that first-year Volts were not entitled to solo occupancy HOV lane privileges.



Volt sales were back at the level achieved in October and November 2011 (before the safety issue flared). We expect sales to increase in coming months, but the larger issue is how the public responds to GM's marketing campaign which is currently in place.



GM’s North American President, Mark Reuss was quoted by the Wall Street Journal saying despite the five-week plant closure, demand will increase once modified versions are on the road, and its marketing plus rising fuel prices will spur Volt acceptance.



“There are some really good things happening and we are going to keep that momentum,” Reuss said.”



GM has said it is committed to the car and its platform. It remains unclear however the extent to which GM will reach earlier goals of 45,000 North American sales.



It’s being said that goal was too aggressive, and to be sure, it is even more ambitious than Leaf sales goals set by Nissan which has said in 2012 it would like only twice the approximately 9,700 Leaf sales it made in 2011. If Nissan is the most bullish, and may sell 20,000 Leafs, how realistic was GM when it originally decided it expected to sell 45,000 Volts?



But despite Nissan’s reporting nationwide Leaf availability last week, the Leaf had even weaker sales in February and is still subject to supply issues. It is expected its sales will increase through the year as distribution shifts from the initial targeted locations to the entire country.




As for diesel sales, these also experienced strong growth, with the launch of the Volkswagen Passat diesel in July 2011 contributing to a strong comparison vs. last year. The Jetta diesel is holding its own, even with the launch of the somewhat larger Passat.



February 2012 Hybrid Car Sales Numbers



Hybrids sold in the U.S. (February 2012): 36,222
Hybrid Take-Rate: 3.16%




U.S. hybrid sales for February 2012


































































































































































































































Model Units vs. last month vs. February 2011 CYTD vs. CYTD 2011
Toyota Prius 20,589 78.2% 52.1% 32,144 33.0%
Toyota Camry 3,750 77.2% 277.6% 5,866 216.6%
Lexus CT 200h 1,640 60.0% n/a 2,6651,025 n/a
Hyundai Sonata 1,568 20.3% n/a 2,872 n/a
Buick LaCrosse 1,248 78.0% n/a 2,029 n/a
Ford Fusion 1,110 81.7% -19.5% 1,721 -26.7%
Kia Optima 925 64.2% n/a 1,630 n/a
Lexus RX400/450h 826 9.7% -17.3% 1,579 -17.4%
Honda Insight 773 57.1% -55.1% 1,265 -61.4%
Honda Civic 741 65.0% 39.3% 1,190 0.4%
Toy. Highlander 474 30.9% -33.0% 836 -40.1%
Honda CR-Z 466 28.4% -57.3% 829 -58.2%
Ford Escape 434 25.8% -45.4% 779 -40.8%
Linc. MKZ Hybrid 419 65.6% 6.1% 672 -12.2%
Chevy Malibu Hybrid 350 0.3 1,958.8% 351 6,920.0%
Lexus HS 250h 150 -1.3% -18.0% 302 -35.6%
Buick Regal 137 78.0 n/a 200 n/a
Porsche Cayenne 137 22.3% -3.5% 249 -29.5%
BMW Hybrid 7 60 100% 71.4% 90 34.3%
Infiniti M35h 58 65.7% n/a 93 n/a
Cad. Escalade 57 67.6% -3.7% 91 -50.8%
Chevy Tahoe 48 166.7% -33.7% 91 -50.8%
GMC Yukon Hybrid 46 91.7% -23.3% 70 -37.5%
Chevy Silverado 42 100.0% -10.6% 63 -73.6%
Porsche Panamera S 34 -12.8% n/a 73 n/a
Mercedes S400HV 28 154.5% 16.7% 39 -22.0%
Altima 22 -18.5% -94.0% 49 -93.3%
Mazda Tribute 21 -12.5% -43.2% 45 -38.4%
Lexus GS450h 20 -20.0% -39.4% 45 -13.5%
VW Touareg Hybrid 18 -50.0% -56.1% 54 -56.8%
Mercedes ML450 13 -1.2% n/a 13 1,200.0%
GMC Sierra 12 200.0% -40.0% 16 -61.0%
Lexus LS600hL 6 -25.0% -14.3% 14 -6.7%
BMW X6 0 -100.0% -100.0% 0 -100.0%
All hybrids 36,222 66.3% 55.4% 58,000 35.4%
All vehicles 1,146,159 25.9% 15.8% 2,056,357 13.8%







February 2012 Plug-in Electric Car Sales Numbers



Plug-in cars sold in the U.S. (February 2012): 1,662
Plug-in Take-Rate: 0.15%




U.S. plug-in electric sales for February 2012





















































Model Units vs. last month vs. February 2011 CYTD vs. CYTD 2011
Chevrolet Volt 1,023 69.7% 264.1% 1,626 170.10%
Nissan LEAF 478 -29.3% 613.4% 1,154 649.4%
BMW Active E 115 2.7% n/a 227 n/a
Mitsubishi i 44 22.2% n/a 80 n/a
Smart ED 2 n/a -90.0% 2 93.8%
All plug-in cars 1,662 16.4% 351.9% 3,089 292.0%
All vehicles 1,146,159 25.9% 15.8% 2,056,357 13.8%








February 2012 Clean Diesel Car Sales Numbers



Clean Diesels sold in the U.S. (February 2012): 9,054
Diesel Take-Rate: 0.79%




U.S. clean diesel sales for February 2012














































































































Model Units vs. last month vs. February 2011 CYTD vs. CYTD 2011
VW Jetta 3,465 38.1% 1.8% 5,974 -5.8%
Passat Diesel 1,948 10.9% n/a 3,177 n/a
Volkswagen Golf 669 0.8% 7.2% 1,333 10.9%
Mercedes GL320 611 16.6% 60.4% 1,135 72.0%
BMW X5 607 49.1% 12.8% 1,014 -14.1%
Mercedes ML320 434 -17.6% 111.7% 961 100.2%
VW Touareg 418 5.6% 137.5% 814 135.3%
Mercedes E320 297 70.7% 83.3% 471 22.7%
Audi A3 253 -35.6% 37.5% 646 -1.4%
Audi Q7 137 -55.8% -60.1% 447 -31.5%
BMW 335d 142 -56.8% -51.0% 471 4.7%
Mercedes S350 55 59.3 n/a 118 n/a
Mercedes R320 18 -53.8% -40.1 57 -21.9
Jeep Gr Cherokee 0 n/a -100.0% - -100.0%
All clean diesels 9,054 19.7% 42.9% 16,618 32.1%
All vehicles 1,146,159 25.9% 15.8% 2,056,357 13.8%








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